WASHINGTON —
President-elect Donald Trump is gearing up to create a National Energy Council, with the objective of positioning the United States as a frontrunner in energy production globally. This initiative underscores his commitment to intensify oil and gas drilling activities, diverging from President Joe Biden’s focus on climate change initiatives.
The council is likely to be led by North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who has been nominated by Trump for the role of Interior Secretary. This council will be crucial in supporting Trump’s agenda of “drill, drill, drill,” aiming to enhance energy exports to allies in Europe and around the world.
With extensive authority over federal agencies involved in energy matters—including permitting, production, and regulation—the council is expected to streamline processes. Trump has expressed his vision for the council to dismantle bureaucratic barriers, attract private investments, and shift the focus toward innovation, which he believes has been stifled by excessive regulations.
However, Trump’s aspirations for achieving energy supremacy may encounter significant hurdles. Under Biden’s leadership, U.S. oil production has already soared to unprecedented levels. Furthermore, the federal government does not possess the authority to mandate companies to boost drilling, and any increase in production could potentially drive down prices and reduce profit margins.
The notion of energy dominance, which Trump previously advocated during his first term, is perceived by certain analysts as more of a potential opportunity rather than an imperative for the oil industry. Energy analyst Kevin Book suggests that the industry may find it more appealing to pursue drilling projects under conditions viewed as more favorable compared to those imposed during Biden’s administration.
Ultimately, the ability of Trump to realize energy dominance hinges on the choices made by private companies, influenced by their assessment of global supply and demand dynamics, according to Book, the managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners. An immediate uptick in new oil drilling operations across the nation is not anticipated.
Trump’s plans to enhance oil availability and lower U.S. prices are further complicated by his recent threat to introduce a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, both key suppliers of oil to the U.S. The oil sector has warned that such tariffs could lead to increased prices and pose potential risks to national security.
“Canada and Mexico are our primary energy trade partners, and ensuring smooth energy exchanges across borders is vital for North American energy security and the interests of U.S. consumers,” commented Scott Lauermann from the American Petroleum Institute, representing the oil industry’s leading lobbying group.
In a similar vein, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which advocates for U.S. refineries, expressed opposition to any potential tariffs, highlighting the reliance of American refiners on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico to provide affordable fuel options for consumers.
Scott Segal, a former official from the Bush administration, observed that Trump’s approach to centralizing energy policies at the White House mirrors Biden’s strategy, who also assembled a team of advisors focused on climate policy. Segal referred to Burgum as “a steady hand on the tiller,” given his experience in both fossil fuels and renewable energy.
In contrast to Biden’s climate advisors—Gina McCarthy, John Podesta, and Ali Zaidi—Burgum is expected to serve in a Senate-confirmed cabinet position.
Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics, and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, noted that the establishment of the new energy council is “a positive development” for the U.S. economy and trade, advocating for better coordination across energy sectors.
However, Meyer cautioned that “market dynamics will always be the key driver” behind any increase in energy production.
Jonathan Elkind, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, described the concept of energy dominance as “deliberately vague.” He expressed doubts about Trump’s ability to boost oil production in an already saturated market.
Trump has asserted his goal to reduce gasoline prices to below $2 a gallon, but experts regard this ambition as unrealistic without a significant decline in crude oil prices. As of Wednesday, the national average for gas prices stood at $3.07, down from $3.25 a year prior.
Elkind and other experts hope that the new energy council will also give importance to renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and geothermal, in addition to nuclear power, as these alternatives do not emit greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.
“Ignoring climate change, which presents an existential threat to our planet, is a serious concern and could lead to substantial losses in American property and lives,” Elkind warned. He referred to federal data indicating that this year alone, over two dozen weather-related disasters inflicted damages surpassing $1 billion each and resulted in 418 fatalities.
Trump has downplayed the threats posed by climate change and has vowed to eliminate unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s flagship climate and healthcare legislation. He has also expressed intentions to halt offshore wind projects upon returning to the White House in January.
Despite this, his announcement on November 15 regarding the energy council stressed a commitment to “expand ALL forms of energy production to enhance our economy and create high-paying jobs.”
This statement included a nod toward renewable energy, as pointed out by Safak Yucel, an associate professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
“The council is tasked with ensuring U.S. dominance globally, but what could be more American than solar and wind energy?” he inquired, referencing a report from Ernst & Young that identified solar energy as the most cost-effective new source of electricity in numerous markets.
Trump has declared his intent to significantly boost baseload power to lower electricity costs, prevent blackouts, and “WIN the battle for AI superiority.”
Before his appointment to the energy role, Burgum highlighted a similar objective, noting the increasing demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of data centers. “The AI competition affects everything from defense to healthcare to education to national productivity,” Burgum remarked.
While Trump has ridiculed the climate law as the “green new scam,” experts suggest that he is unlikely to completely dismantle it, partly because a significant amount of its investments and job creation occurs in Republican districts. GOP lawmakers have urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to preserve the law, which was enacted solely with Democratic support.
“Many Southern states are informing Trump that they actually favor renewable energy sources,” Yucel noted, highlighting that Republican-led states have experienced substantial job growth in the wind, solar, and battery sectors in recent years.
If renewables continue to be economically viable, he concluded, “they will endure.”
