In 2019, Avengers: Endgame shattered records to become the highest-grossing film ever, marking a pinnacle for the superhero film genre. However, its sequel, Avengers: Doomsday, set to release in 2026, will find itself in a drastically different Hollywood landscape. Doomsday will have to navigate not only the diminishing popularity of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) but also a broader waning interest in superhero films overall.
With an influx of hit-or-miss shows on Disney+ and ongoing challenges stemming from the pandemic, several recent MCU films have faced a mix of critical and commercial setbacks. Meanwhile, the DC Extended Universe has come to a close after a series of nine financial disappointments, including major flops like The Flash and Joker: Folie a Deux. Although superhero films still represent 13 out of the 25 highest-grossing films in the U.S. from 2021 to 2024, the once-reliable success of comic book adaptations has become increasingly uncertain after nearly two decades of consistent releases.
From 2016 onward, excluding the pandemic-affected 2020, superhero films have accounted for roughly 21% of the annual domestic box office, according to The Numbers. This genre has become a vital part of the theatrical experience, and any further decline could severely impact an already struggling industry.
The upcoming launches of Marvel’s Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four, alongside DC’s Superman, will provide crucial insights into the current health and future viability of the superhero genre. Let’s delve into the larger context surrounding these films to grasp what’s truly at stake for both the genre and the industry.
Thunderbolts* (May 2)
The MCU initially thrived by bringing B-list characters like Iron Man, Captain America, and Thor to the forefront, who had long played second fiddle to the likes of Spider-Man and the X-Men. This approach proved successful, but the question remains: is it sustainable? Thunderbolts* centers on a group of lesser-known C and D-listers and requires audiences to familiarize themselves with a significant number of prior MCU properties, including all four Captain America films, Black Widow, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Ant-Man, and more. That’s a lot of homework for a film that aims to be a blockbuster, revealing the strain of the franchise’s interconnectedness at this stage.
To break even, Thunderbolts* must gross at least $450 million globally, as its production budget is estimated between $150 million and $200 million, not including a marketing budget likely in the nine-figure range. However, six of the last twelve MCU films have failed to cross the $500 million mark at the box office, indicating potential over-saturation and inconsistent quality. Currently, projections suggest that Thunderbolts* may open lower than Captain America: Brave New World ($89 million) in the U.S., according to both The Numbers and Box Office Theory. Tracking data from The Quorum shows Thunderbolts* trailing Brave New World in terms of awareness and interest just two weeks before its release.
If Thunderbolts* fails to be profitable, it will underscore several harsh truths for Marvel and the superhero landscape:
- Aside from Shang-Chi, the studio struggles to successfully introduce commercially viable new characters that can launch new franchises;
- This creates a dependency on legacy characters, many of whom are becoming increasingly dated (is it surprising that Doomsday will feature 50 well-known characters from the MCU?!
On the flip side, a successful launch could indicate a renewed audience interest in new superheroes following the lukewarm receptions of recent films like Eternals, Blue Beetle, and The Flash.
Superman (July 11)
Few blockbusters in recent years carry as much weight as James Gunn’s revitalization of the iconic Man of Steel and the DC Universe. Yet, based on historical performance, Superman may face considerable challenges despite the character’s widespread appeal.
The 2013 film Man of Steel turned a profit with $670 million worldwide against a $225 million budget, but it fell short of studio expectations amidst a polarized reception. Similarly, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice struggled. The 2006 film Superman Returns, which aimed to revive the Christopher Reeve legacy, ended up losing money with only $390 million against a $275 million budget! Marvel’s Captain America series demonstrates that earnest heroes can resonate with modern audiences, but Clark Kent hasn’t starred in a surefire theatrical hit since 1980. That’s a tough pill to swallow for whoever tracks box office numbers at the Daily Planet.
Gunn’s Superman seeks to launch a 10-year franchise blueprint for DC Studios, encompassing films, television shows, video games, and more. Anything less than universal acclaim and solid box office performance could derail this ambitious plan and jeopardize Superman’s status as a cinematic franchise, even though the character remains popular on television. The stakes for Superman are incredibly high; the perceived value of Warner Bros. Discovery in any potential merger hinges significantly on the strength of its DC intellectual property.
If Superman fails to soar at the box office, the fallout could resemble a post-apocalyptic landscape in comparison.
Fortunately, as of March, projections indicate that Superman could earn over $300 million domestically during its theatrical run. If it follows the historical U.S. versus international box office trends of past Superman films like BvS, Man of Steel, and Superman Returns, it may surpass $700 million globally.
The forthcoming The Fantastic Four film, titled “First Steps,” will mark Disney’s initial venture in bringing this beloved Marvel family to the big screen in the 21st century. Earlier attempts by other studios have yielded mixed results, with the 2015 reboot notably suffering substantial financial losses. Nevertheless, there is a newfound enthusiasm surrounding the Fantastic Four, as evidenced by the impressive viewership of the latest trailer and the buzz leading up to its release.
While the superhero genre has undeniably shaped modern cinema, the proliferation of superhero content in the streaming age has raised concerns regarding audience fatigue. The success or failure of films such as Superman and Fantastic Four: First Steps could offer valuable insights into the future trajectory of the genre and Hollywood’s ongoing quest for blockbuster franchises.
In summary, the outcomes of these superhero films could illuminate the changing dynamics of cinema and the enduring allure of larger-than-life characters on the silver screen. This is a crucial juncture for the industry, and the results may significantly influence the direction of blockbuster entertainment in the coming years.
The lazy cat sat in the sun on the windowsill.
The cat lounged in the sunlight streaming through the window.
