O
n April 17, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published a report that has sparked considerable alarm. The results from a 2022 survey conducted across 16 different locations in the U.S. indicated that one in every 31 children studied has been diagnosed with autism. This marks a significant increase from the one in 36 ratio reported in 2020 and an even more alarming rise from one in 150 in the year 2000.
“The autism epidemic is spiraling out of control,” stated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), during a press briefing. “President Trump has tasked me with investigating the underlying causes of this childhood chronic disease epidemic, including autism. We are assembling a team of leading scientists to concentrate on research about the origins of this epidemic, and we expect to have preliminary findings by September.”
However, some critics—including the CDC itself—argue that Kennedy’s assertions are misguided. The report suggests that fluctuations in autism prevalence may be largely attributable to disparities in access to early detection services and diagnostic methodologies. Additionally, the impact of insurance coverage and eligibility for early intervention services could play a significant role in these statistics.
Experts have long argued that the observed increase in autism diagnoses is mostly due to enhanced screening techniques and an expanded definition of the condition. With rising awareness and evolving diagnostic criteria, more cases are being recognized.
“The majority of the increase in autism diagnoses does not necessarily indicate a true rise in cases; instead, it reflects improved diagnostic practices and broader criteria,” explains Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital’s Center for Vaccine Development. “Since 2005, the American Academy of Pediatrics has advocated for autism screenings for children aged one to two years. Moreover, we have enhanced access to autism services, encouraging more parents to seek assistance for their children.”
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Kennedy dismisses this perspective, asserting, “We need to abandon the notion that the rise in diagnoses is purely a product of better identification. Physicians and therapists in the past were not negligent; they weren’t overlooking these cases. The epidemic is real.” He expressed concern over what he describes as “epidemic denial” among scientists, stressing the need to delve into external factors and environmental exposures to uncover the truth behind increasing autism rates.
Kennedy has highlighted various environmental exposures, such as industrial chemicals, food additives, and pollutants in drinking water. While he has previously promoted the widely discredited theory linking vaccines to autism, he has not emphasized this stance recently. This history raises concerns among autism advocacy groups, who fear that Kennedy’s timeline for identifying the causes of autism by September may merely serve to support a predetermined conclusion.
“It’s clear that the administration aims to announce findings that prove vaccines cause autism rather than genuinely seeking to identify the true causes,” remarks Alison Singer, founder of the Autism Science Foundation, which funds autism research, and mother to an adult daughter with severe autism. “This question has been extensively studied and answered: there is no link between autism and vaccines. The risk lies in the possibility that the administration might declare vaccines as the culprit and subsequently halt funding for research into genuine causes of autism.”
The origins of autism often have a genetic basis. A study conducted in 2020 by researchers at Harvard and MIT’s Broad Institute identified 102 genes associated with an increased risk of autism. “I believe that many leading companies and institutions pursuing genetically guided treatments for severe autism would find it troubling that the head of HHS seems unaware of the current research landscape in this area,” states Dr. Joseph Buxbaum, a professor of psychiatry, neuroscience, and genetics at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.
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However, genetics are not the sole determinants of outcomes; carrying genes associated with autism does not guarantee that a child will develop the condition. Other influences, including exposure to chemicals such as pesticides and phthalates, air pollution, and nutritional deficiencies, may interact with genetic predispositions. This aligns with Kennedy’s claims about environmental toxins, but parental age also plays a role, as older parents are statistically more likely to have children with autism. Hotez notes that certain medications, such as depakote—an anti-seizure drug—may also be linked to autism if taken during pregnancy.
“Kennedy’s assertion that the scientific community dismisses environmental factors is unfounded,” Hotez states. “I have communicated to RFK Jr. that there may be environmental influences, but it’s not related to vaccines, as autism manifests during fetal brain development long before children receive vaccinations.”
Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a professor of pediatrics at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine, also finds Kennedy’s promise to uncover the roots of autism—an enigma that has confounded researchers for decades—by September to be overly ambitious. Offit points out that other assertions made by Kennedy reveal a tenuous grasp on scientific evidence.
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“What is the evidence that removing fluoride from drinking water is advantageous? The CDC ranks it among its top ten public health achievements,” Offit questions. “What proof exists that avoiding ultra-processed foods enhances health? While it sounds reasonable, I would like to see the data.” The Brookings Institute highlighted a controversial statement made by Kennedy in 2021, suggesting that Black individuals should have a different vaccination schedule than white individuals due to varying immune responses. During his confirmation hearing, Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat from Maryland, challenged him on this view, to which Kennedy remained firm.
These circumstances have raised doubts among critics about Kennedy’s ability to impartially and intelligently assess the roots of autism—or whether an HHS under his guidance could truly uncover those roots in the next five months.
“When he claims that we will discover the cause of autism by September, it’s naive—almost childlike—because it’s akin to saying we will know the cause of cancer by September,” remarks Dr. Hotez. “Everyone recognizes that there are numerous forms of cancer, just as there are various forms of autism and associated genetic factors. Many of us have dedicated significant time to educating him on these complexities, but he appears unresponsive.”
