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It’s important to highlight that Donald Trump is currently facing some of the lowest polling figures of his presidency. Given his track record, this is particularly noteworthy, as sustained support has rarely been his strong suit.
Throughout much of his initial term, Trump leaned on his image as a strong economic leader and protector of borders to mask his erratic behavior. However, new polling data regarding his first 100 days back in office suggests that his backing in these critical areas is diminishing, pulling his overall approval ratings down as he embraces more extreme policies.
Recent poll findings show a considerable drop in Trump’s approval regarding economic management. A Reuters survey indicates that his approval rating has plummeted to a historic low of just 37%. While his immigration policies have not seen quite as drastic a downturn, he has notably lost the edge he once held, especially in light of a deportation campaign affecting both U.S. citizens and lawful residents.
His unfavorable ratings have been steadily increasing since he returned to the Oval Office, climbing to 52% as per a recent aggregate analysis by the New York Times. In contrast, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush all had more favorable standings at similar points in their presidencies. Trump 2.0 finds little solace in the fact that he is still slightly ahead of his first-term numbers from eight years ago, aside from a troubling Fox News poll that shows him trailing his first term by a narrow margin, still within the error range.
In fact, the decline in Trump’s polling numbers is unprecedented for a U.S. President in the 21st century. He embarked on his second term with some of the lowest approval ratings recorded in modern history, buoyed only by the remnants of support from his first term. For reference, the last time a first-term President faced worse numbers was in 1953 with Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was a political newcomer.
Recent findings from The Economist and YouGov show Trump’s approval rating sitting at a troubling negative 13 points, reflecting a three-point decline from the previous week. In stark contrast, Biden enjoyed an 11-point lead at a similar stage in his presidency.
A deeper dive into Pew’s latest polling reveals that Trump is viewed unfavorably by nearly every demographic, with the exception of Republican voters. Men, women, individuals from various racial backgrounds, and both college-educated and non-college-educated voters share negative views of his performance. He lacks a net-positive rating on any significant issue, including immigration, trade, public health, the economy, foreign policy, and tax policy.
While there isn’t a single reason for the shift in voter sentiment towards Trump, economic issues play a crucial role. His controversial tariff policies have unsettled markets, and his escalating trade war is leading to significant buyer’s remorse on Wall Street. Furthermore, mass deportations have created labor shortages for many employers and burdened the court system with an influx of cases. The overall instability projected by his administration’s actions does little to instill confidence. According to Gallup, economic confidence is currently at its lowest point since 2001.
What initially started as a 12-point advantage for Trump regarding the economy at the beginning of his second term has now morphed into a 12-point deficit, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment, as reported by Economist/YouGov data.
Similarly, concerning immigration, Trump’s net-positive rating has dropped from 11 points to a net-negative of 5 points according to the latest Economist/YouGov survey.
According to new data from Pew, immigration is viewed as the most favorably regarded policy of Trump’s administration, appealing to about 20% of Americans. This is the only area where his approval remains above water, although Fox’s numbers hint at future challenges, as only 47% express approval of his immigration strategy while 48% disapprove.
Conversely, when asked about their primary grievances with his administration, 22% of adults cited his governing style as their top concern, according to Pew.
The dwindling support for Trump might not directly resolve the chaos he has stirred in Washington, but it does present an opportunity for Democrats who have openly acknowledged their lack of a unified strategy to counter his actions undermining the law, the economy, or the government he oversees. Notably, politically independent voters—a vital demographic in elections—have shown a marked shift in their support for Trump: in January, 46% disapproved of him, a figure that has now climbed to 58%. This 12-point shift among independents could be crucial, prompting Republicans to reassess whether Trump’s influence can truly shield them as they approach next year’s elections.
Among Republicans, there are also indications of concern. A Fox poll gauged GOP voters about their expectations for Trump’s second term, showing that 75% expressed optimism for the upcoming four years. While this may seem promising, it’s crucial to note that 84% felt similarly at this point in Trump’s first term.
If these trends persist, it may lead lawmakers in Washington to prepare for a potential change in leadership, especially in light of the Democrats’ vigorous fundraising efforts this election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a slim seven-seat majority in the House, and many GOP lawmakers have clung to the belief that only Trump can protect them from losses in the upcoming primaries. However, these recent statistics suggest he may be unintentionally exacerbating their challenges.
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