Growing up in Miami amid a vibrant community of Cuban exiles fleeing the upheaval brought on by Fidel Castro’s rule, Senator Marco Rubio developed a deep-seated resistance to communism. Now, as he prepares to serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, Rubio looks set to infuse that same ideological zeal into reshaping U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America.
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As the first Latino to take on the role of Secretary of State, Rubio is expected to pay close attention to what has been often referred to in a dismissive manner as Washington’s backyard.
Having served as the leading Republican on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and as a long-standing member of the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has wielded his extensive expertise and personal relationships to steer U.S. policy in the region for years.
In the aftermath of the Cold War, Latin America gradually faded from the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy, even as rivals like Russia, Iran, and notably China made significant inroads. Should he be confirmed, Rubio is anticipated to address this oversight.
Nevertheless, Rubio’s stringent national security views, endorsement of Trump’s mass deportation strategies, and inclination towards divisive rhetoric may alienate some allies in the region who are wary of aligning with the incoming President’s America First doctrine.
“Historically, Latin American policy has been left to junior officials,” remarked Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London. “However, Rubio’s instincts are finely tuned to the region. He will be actively involved, prompting governments to adopt a more collaborative approach in their dealings with the U.S. to fortify relationships.”
Through a spokesperson, Rubio declined to elaborate on his foreign policy ambitions.
However, his views on Latin America are well-known and sharply contrast with the Biden administration’s focus on multilateral dialogue and diplomacy with U.S. critics.
Following Trump’s lead, Rubio is likely to concentrate his efforts on Mexico, particularly regarding trade, drug trafficking, and immigration issues. Having previously supported bipartisan reforms that provided undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship, Rubio has since evolved into a strong proponent of stricter border enforcement and mass deportations during Trump’s first term.
While he has remained relatively quiet about the newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, he was vocal in his criticism of her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who notably opted out of the U.S.-organized Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles to meet with leftist leaders in Cuba.
Rubio accused López Obrador of capitulating to drug cartels and described him as an “apologist for tyranny” regarding Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. In response, the Mexican President labeled Rubio a “racist.”
Despite this diplomatic slight, López Obrador was welcomed by President Joe Biden at the White House just weeks later, where he was referred to as a “friend” and “partner.”
“That type of reception will likely be a relic of the past under Rubio,” Sabatini noted. “He pays close attention to those who align with his policy views.”
Now at the age of 53, Rubio has been a trusted advisor to Trump on Latin American matters, actively advocating for his stringent policies. He has consistently criticized Russian and Chinese influence in the area and is expected to take action against countries that align with U.S. geopolitical rivals or fail to support Israel.
When Trump canceled his first Latin America trip in 2018, Rubio stepped in, engaging with leaders from nations such as Argentina and Haiti at the Summit of the Americas in Peru.
“No one in the U.S. Senate has his level of intimate knowledge and expertise regarding Latin America,” commented Carlos Trujillo, a close associate of Rubio and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “He has built personal relationships with numerous officials over decades and has vetted nearly every U.S. ambassador assigned to the region, which is a considerable asset.”
Among those eager to collaborate with Rubio is Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whose bold style and journey from television personality to far-right politician parallels Trump’s own rise.
Another ally is El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who Rubio has commended for his strict approach to gang violence that previously drove millions of Salvadorans to the U.S.
Rubio has not shied away from using his influence to challenge leftist leaders he views as threats to U.S. national security. Even moderate democratically elected leaders have faced his scrutiny. Earlier this year, he criticized Chilean President Gabriel Boric, who has been vocal about Israel’s actions in Gaza, for allegedly providing a safe haven for Hezbollah financiers, labeling him as “one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”
In 2023, he referred to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group, as a “dangerous” choice for a country that has historically been a crucial U.S. ally in the drug war.
Nevertheless, it is Venezuela where Rubio has arguably made the most significant impact.
Shortly after Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, Rubio arranged a visit for the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissident Leopoldo Lopez to the White House. This event, marked by a photo of a smiling Trump and Rubio alongside the imprisoned activist’s wife, thrust Venezuela into the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy, signaling a shift from prior administrations’ more detached approach.
Over the next two years, Trump imposed harsh oil sanctions on Venezuela, accused numerous officials of corruption, and even suggested a “military option” to remove President Nicolás Maduro. By 2019, during Rubio’s peak influence, the U.S. officially recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.
However, this aggressive strategy—well-received among exiles in South Florida—eventually became a political liability for Trump, who later admitted to having overestimated the strength of the opposition. In strengthening Maduro’s foothold, it also paved the way for increased Russian, Chinese, and Iranian involvement in Venezuela, worsening a humanitarian crisis that led millions to flee, many of whom sought refuge in the U.S.
Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, speculates that Trump may adopt a more lenient stance towards Maduro this time, even with Rubio in charge of the State Department, potentially continuing the engagement and sanctions relief strategy initiated by the Biden administration.
“Trump may start treating Maduro like other global strongmen, paying less attention to the Cuban-American exile community in Florida,” Shifter suggested.
Trujillo believes that Rubio’s reputation for straightforwardness will serve him well during negotiations with both allies and adversaries, even if he needs to temper his occasionally fiery rhetoric.
“He’ll need to adopt a different strategy now, but he’s an outstanding negotiator, and I’m confident he will rise to the occasion,” Trujillo stated.
With Trump appointing another outspoken critic of Maduro, Representative Michael Waltz from Florida, as national security adviser, Trujillo noted that Maduro and his authoritarian allies in Cuba and Nicaragua should be on alert.
So far, officials in Venezuela and Cuba, who are quick to criticize the U.S. on social media, have remained largely silent regarding Rubio’s nomination and have refrained from extensive commentary on Trump’s election.
“There is a chance for negotiation, but it must be approached sincerely,” Trujillo remarked. “Failure to do so will result in consequences.”
—Goodman reported from Miami. Contributions to this report were made by Mark Stevenson and Maria Verza in Mexico City, as well as Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires.
